Success Chance

The Forge of Potentials lets you attempt further upgrades on eligible equipment, including upgrades beyond its normal quality limit. Every attempt carries a risk of destroying the item.

On Sunshine Alley, each attempt receives a fresh, independent random roll.

What are the chances?

The Wooden, Bronze, Iron and Silver Battle and Protection Idols use these chances:

These idols have no downgrade-only outcome. A failed roll destroys the item rather than returning it at a lower level.

The attempt’s required materials are consumed whether it succeeds or fails.

How is success calculated?

When you complete an attempt, the game generates a random number between 0 and 1 and compares it with the idol’s success threshold of 0.65.

• A roll at or below 0.65 succeeds.

• A roll above 0.65 fails.

For example, a roll of 0.42 succeeds, while a roll of 0.81 destroys the item.

Sunshine Alley generates this roll when you make the attempt, replacing the normal game’s saved upgrade sequence.

Do previous attempts affect the next one?

No. Every attempt has the same 65% success chance.

Previous failures do not build up a bonus or guarantee an eventual success. Previous successes do not make the next attempt less likely to succeed.

Your character name, crafting skill and the item’s current quality do not change this success percentage. The listed idol tiers share the same odds.

A 65% chance also does not guarantee exactly 65 successes in every 100 attempts. Both winning streaks and losing streaks can happen.

What about several upgrades in a row?

Each individual attempt remains 65%, but keeping the same item through several consecutive upgrades requires every roll to succeed.

Chance of all upgrades succeeding = 0.65 raised to the number of attempts

These percentages describe an uninterrupted run with one item. After any successful upgrade, the next attempt still has its own 65% success chance.

Consider keeping replacement equipment available before risking an item you depend on.